In a February report, USDA experts lowered sunflower production forecasts for Argentina and Russia. However, analysts assume that the forecasts for these countries will fall again in the next balance and the overall balance for 2022/23 will deteriorate.
Compared to January estimates, the forecast for global production of Sunflowers reduced by 2022 million tons to 23 million tons in 0,31/50,77 (57,31 million tons in 2021/22 and 49,2 million tons in 2020/21), notably for Argentina by 0,2 to 4,4 million tons, and for Russia by 0,5 to 16 million tons, although according to Rosstat, 15,3 million tons were collected at the end of December and 1 million hectares were not dried. The harvest forecast for the Ukraine was increased by 0,4 to 10,4 million tons.
The forecast for the export of Sunflowers in 2022/23 for Argentina was reduced by 50 thousand tons to 200 thousand tons, but for Ukraine increased by 0,2 million tons to a record 2,65 million tons. Due to active exports from Ukraine, the import forecast for the EU was increased by 50 thousand tons to 2,9 million tons.
Ukraine continues to restore power supply to industrial enterprises, which affects the prospects for processing Sunflowers improved, hence internal processing rating increased by 0,5 million tons to 10 million tons.
The forecast for the world ending stocks Sunflowers was reduced by 0,88 million tons to 4,85 million tons (8 million tons in 2021/22 and 2,6 million tons in 2020/21), including Ukraine by 0,3 to 1 .85 million tons and the Russian Federation by 0,5 to 0,74 million tons.
The purchase prices for Sunflowers in Ukraine within a week fell by $465-480/ton with delivery to the factory as a result of delays in the arrival of ships to Black Sea ports and slowdown in the export of meal and oil. But in a month sunflower prices have increased by 3-5%.
The acceleration of sunflower exports in early January led to an increase in purchase prices by processors, so solving the problem with admitting ships to ports would immediately increase demand for sunflowers, despite the fact that prices for Sunflower oil were low due to the substantial supply of cheap palm oil.
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)