In the November report, experts at RMI Analytics slightly increased their estimates for the global barley harvest, but reported that the European harvest will be significantly smaller than last year.
The total crop forecast was raised slightly by 0,3 million tonnes to 140,8 million tonnes due to the completion of the harvest in Canada and improved forecasts in Australia. In Canada the harvest is estimated at 8 million tonnes, with barley quality being quite good. In Australia, the total is estimated at 11,19 million tonnes, up 0,2 million tonnes from the previous forecast. It's running in Argentina Barley well, and analysts estimate the harvest at 4,59 million tons, but in some regions there was frost that will affect the harvest.
The situation in Europe and the United Kingdom remains unchanged, the harvest is estimated at 54,46 million tons, which is 4-5 million tons less than in 2021 and 2022. Farmers in Northern Europe faced several challenges during the harvest. The high humidity led to premature germination and also made it difficult to sow winter barley. The quality of the crop is still being tested, which has led to a sharp increase in prices.
Given the lower demand for raw materials of sub-optimal quality and a smaller harvest, the market remains in balance. An expansion of the cultivated area is expected for 2024, also due to delays in sowing winter barley. Analysts say there could be a much-needed recovery in acreage in 2024, leading to higher yields.
As in Northern Europe, the sowing of winter barley in France is around 10 percent behind schedule, and here too, analysts expect an increase in the area under cultivation for spring barley in 2024.
The global barley crop is estimated to be 11,3 million tonnes below 2022 levels - only once in the last decade has the world seen a smaller harvest. However, RMI Analytics expects there will be enough malting barley available to meet demand, assuming Argentina and Australia harvest at least average quantities.
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)