Ukrainian farmers have a sizeable bet this year Rapeseeds as high-yielding agriculture, but a number of external factors, notably the fall in oil prices and Biodiesels, are threatening a collapse in oil prices. Restrictions on Ukrainian exports to the EU of five crops, which include rapeseed, aggravate the situation. This was stated during a weekly briefing organized by the analytical center of the START cooperative created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, the VAR press service said.
“The world prices for Biodiesel sink for six months. It is expected that interest rates in the USA rise what the market for Rapeseed oil and other energy carriers, including Biodiesel, pressurizes. This will help drive down canola prices. In addition, they expect a good oilseed harvest in the EU, which will reduce European demand for Ukrainian rapeseed at the beginning of the harvest campaign. In Ukraine, a significant amount of gross oil is also forecast at the level of 3,7 million tons”, – noted in the analytical department «START».
According to analysts, the new rapeseed crop is now being increased in Germany at a price of 385-390 euros per ton. Due to the high expected supply at Rapeseeds in July the price could drop by 40 to 50 euros per tonne.
“The expectation that the EU will extend the import ban of five crops from Ukraine, which include rapeseed, until the end of the year is exacerbating the situation. In this case, Poland disappears as a buyer of Ukrainian rapeseed. Odessa ports are unlikely to be able to send rapeseed in July, all supply will be transferred to small ports. So we can expect prices to fall between July and August,” the analysts added.
At the same time, in her opinion, demand for Ukrainian rapeseed can resume in the fall, when the EU is already processing its own oilseed crop.
Source: APKinform (Ukraine)