The FAO forecast for global grain production in 2023 has been revised downwards by 4 million tonnes from the July forecast. Despite this month's downward revision, global grain production could reach 2,815 million tons, 0,9 percent above the previous season's level, which would set a record for 2021. The bulk of this month's downward revision comes as the July forecast for global wheat production was revised down by 2,2 million tonnes to 781,1 million tonnes. World wheat production is therefore expected to be 2,6% below the previous year's level, which would still be the second highest production ever recorded.
The main factor driving the downward revision of the outlook is a decline in production in Canada and the European Union compared to previous forecasts, due to dry weather conditions that resulted in lower yields. As crop prospects deteriorated due to heavy rains in several key producing regions of China, the forecast for wheat production in that country was also revised downwards, albeit to a lesser extent. These downgrades were partially offset by higher production forecasts in the United States, where new data shows spring wheat acreage exceeding previous forecasts, and in India and Ukraine, according to recent data from their respective governments reporting a larger-than-expected harvest show.
The FAO forecast for global coarse grain production in 2023 was reduced by 1,3 million tons compared to the July value and now stands at 1 million tons, still 511 percent above the previous year's level; the decline this month is mainly due to lower Gersten– and oat harvests. The forecast for global barley production was revised downwards by 2,9 million tonnes and now stands at 143,8 million tonnes, a decline of 5,6 percent from the previous year. The lower production forecasts are due to deteriorating crop conditions and crop prospects in the European Union and Canada. The lower forecast for global oat production is primarily due to worsening growing conditions in Canada, the European Union and the United States of America, reflecting both lower acreage and lower yields than originally expected. Global oat production will therefore fall to 2023 million tonnes in 23,1, its lowest level in eleven years. This decline will be partially offset by a 3,6 million metric ton increase in forecast global corn production, which is now expected to reach a record high of 1,215 million metric tons.
This upward trend is due to better-than-expected corn harvests in Brazil and Ukraine, which more than offset lower corn production forecasts in the United States of America and the European Union. The FAO forecast for global rice production in the 2023-2024 season was also reduced by 500.000 tonnes to 523,2 million tonnes compared to the July forecast, but is 1,1 percent above the low of the 2022-2023 season. The downward revision primarily reflects lower-than-expected acreage utilization following the main crop in Indonesia that ended in April, as well as less optimistic expectations for the main crop in Thailand, where erratic rainfall and water shortages have reduced acreage compared to last year. Heavy rains and floods in China's northeastern provinces have also caused some deterioration in crop prospects. These lower forecasts are partially offset by higher forecasts for several other countries, including Cambodia, Colombia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Nigeria and the United States of America, in all cases largely due to the use of greater acreage than previously expected.
Global grain consumption for the 2023-2024 season is estimated at 2.807 million tons, 1,5 million tons more than forecast in July and 22,1 million tons (0,8 percent) higher than the 2022-2023 season. The upward revision in global wheat consumption for the 2023-2024 season by 2,3 million tonnes to 785 million tonnes, 0,6 percent higher than the 2022-2023 season, is mainly due to higher wheat consumption in India due to an expected increase in domestic production and the offer.
Total coarse grain consumption for the 2023-2024 season is forecast at 1.501 million tons, 1,6 million tons less than July but still 1,2 percent above the forecast for the 2022-2023 season. This month's downward revision to the barley consumption forecast is largely due to barley use for feed in Canada and the European Union being lower than previously expected, resulting in an overall forecast barley consumption decrease of 2023 for the 2024-0,8 season .2022 percent lower than for the 2023-2023 season. Global rice consumption for the 2024-520,9 season could be 800.000 million tons, XNUMX tons more than forecast in July and virtually unchanged from last year.
Despite the generally less optimistic supply forecasts and the resulting downward revisions for a number of countries in Asia and Africa, this adjustment is offset by an upward revision for India, where food consumption is forecast to remain above levels for another season thanks to another relatively bountiful harvest and lower exports of the COVID-19 season and where production diverted to ethanol production will continue to increase.
Global grain stocks will be at 2023 million tonnes at the end of the 2024-878 season, unchanged from the July forecast and an increase of 18,6 million tonnes (2,2%) from levels at the start of the season. The ratio between global grain stocks and consumption in the 2023-2024 season would therefore be 30,5 percent, which is virtually unchanged from the value of 30,6 percent in the 2022-2023 season and remains generally high compared to previous periods . Global wheat stocks will rise marginally by 0,3 percent to 315 million tonnes, driven by a 1,3 million tonnes increase in stocks in the Russian Federation, the United States, Turkey and Ukraine.
The current forecast for global coarse grain stocks is 365 million tonnes, 4,3% higher than at the start of the season, although it was revised downwards by 1,0 million tonnes this month, mainly due to a lower forecast for This is due to global barley and oat stocks, which could not be offset by an improvement in the corn forecast. Despite the downward revision of 435 tonnes, global rice stocks are expected to reach a new record high of 000 million tonnes at the end of the 2023-2024 marketing season, 198,1 percent above the low of the 1,4-2022 season. As in previous seasons, China and India are expected to account for almost three-quarters of these stocks, which should be the largest contributor to the upward revision of the forecast for global stocks in the 2023-2023 season. Small increases in stocks in a number of countries, particularly Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States, are unlikely to offset declines in stocks in other countries. Overall, rice stocks in countries other than China and India are expected to decline for the second year in a row, reaching a four-year low of 2024 million tonnes.
Compared to July forecast data, the FAO this month expects global grain trade to fall by 2023 million tons to 2024 million tons in the 6,5-466 season, a decline of 1,7 percent (7,9, 2022 million tons) compared to the 2023-2023 season. The forecast for world wheat trade in the 2024-1,9 season (July/June) has been reduced by 193 million tonnes to 3,5 million tonnes compared to the July forecast, which is 2022 percent below the value for the 2023-XNUMX season. The expected decline compared to the previous season is due to an expected decline in exports from Australia due to lower production and - from Ukraine due to the destabilization of trade caused by the ongoing war, as well as lower import demand in the European Union, China and Turkey.
For the 2023-2024 season (July/June), global trade in coarse grains is expected to be 220 million tons, which is 1,6 million tons less than the July forecast and 0,8 percent less than the 2022 season. 2023. The main reason for the downward revision this month is the lower forecast for world corn trade for the 2023-2024 season, mainly due to lower-than-expected corn sales in the United States due to lower expected production, as well as lower sales in Ukraine as a result of the suspension the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The FAO forecast for global rice trade in 2023 was reduced by 600 tonnes and in 000 by 2024 million tonnes compared to the July forecast.
This downward revision is mainly due to the recent tightening of restrictions on rice exports from India, the world's largest exporter. While the duration and extent of these restrictions are uncertain, the Indian authorities allow exceptions for food security reasons and at the request of other governments; These restrictions should remain in place for a longer period of time and with the possible negative impact of El Niño on production in several other Asian exporting countries e.gusamm, the projected increase in global rice trade in 2024 is unlikely to be more than 1,0 million tonnes.
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)