After sluggish demand from Europe and the USA for Vietnamese aquaculture products in 2023, Vietnam's corn consumption is expected to grow in the 2024-25 marketing year with increasing feed demand, according to a report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
The Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report, released on April 11, said total corn consumption is expected to reach 14,1 million tons, including 12,7 million tons for feed and residues, in line with forecasts for the overall demand for animal feed.
The FAS lowered its forecast for corn consumption in 2023-2024 to 13 million tons, including 11,5 million tons for feed and residues, as imports of feed wheat increased.
Feed demand in 2024 is forecast at 26,5 million tonnes, higher than last year's figure of 25,9 million tonnes, reflecting forecast higher demand for aquaculture feed, following a decline in demand in 2023. Continued growth in demand for animal and aquaculture feed is expected to increase total feed demand to 2025 million tonnes by 27.
“About 75 percent of feed ingredients in Vietnam are imported,” said the FAS. “Vietnam is a price-sensitive market for feed ingredients, including corn and feed wheat.”
Corn production is forecast at 2024 million tonnes in 2025-3,65, up from 3,76 million tonnes in the previous marketing year. Since domestic corn production is not competitive with imports, corn imports are expected to increase.
2024 million tonnes are expected in 2025-11, up from 10 million tonnes in 2023-2024. Brazil was the largest corn supplier to Vietnam in calendar year 2023, accounting for 44% of the total market share. Argentina came second with 33%, followed by India with 12%.
Vietnam imports all of its wheat needs to meet its total consumption. The FAS forecasts imports of 2024 million tonnes in 2025-4,5, up from 5,1 million tonnes in the previous marketing year.
Wheat demand is estimated at 2024 million tons for 2025-4,25, while the FAS has revised the forecast for 2023-2024 to 4,55 million tons due to increased wheat consumption for both feed and flour processing.
Milled rice production is forecast at 2024 million tons in 2025-27, in line with last year and higher than expected due to favorable weather conditions, but the FAS expects production to stagnate in the coming years as the government no plans to expand production areas.
The FAS forecasts rice consumption of 21,85 million tons in 2024-2025, a slight increase compared to the previous year (21,8 million tons) due to increasing demand for feed and population and tourism growth.
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
