Canadian linseed exporters may increase their share of the EU market if the EU imposes tariffs on imports of agricultural products from Russia and Belarus. This was the opinion of Kent Anholt, managing director of Rayglen Commodities Inc.
However, an obstacle could be the reduction in cultivated areas: according to estimates by the National Statistics Office, cultivated areas in Canada will decrease this year by 16% to the level of 2023 - to 206,4 thousand hectares. This is the lowest value since 1949.
Anholt expects an even steeper decline (to 202.400 hectares) even though purchasing prices for flax have increased to $16 per bushel (or $58.500 per ton).
“With canola approaching $15, flax is not doing as well at $16. Flax should be much more expensive than rapeseed, otherwise it will not be grown,” explained the expert.
However, the market may still find support as a deficit of oilseeds is expected in the global market due to lower flax stocks in China, a weak harvest in Kazakhstan in 2023 and low carryover balances.
Source: oleoscope (Russian)