Heat

Hot weather around the world affects harvest conditions and yield forecasts

The world is facing a new temperature record on July 3, 2023, the hottest day on record, indicating that the consequence of climate change is an increase in global temperatures, reports UkrAgroConsult, citing Bloomberg.

Heat waves are also becoming more frequent and more violent. The key factor is humidity. In 2022, when heat waves hit India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka, New Delhi recorded peak temperatures of over +49°C.

In 2023, parts of India were once again hit by hot pre-monsoon temperatures - bad news for crops, crop forecasts and yields.

Elsewhere, hot weather hit Texas and northern Mexico. Unusually hot and dry conditions are forecast for the summer in Europe.

Traditionally, high temperatures and high humidity are greatest in South Asia and subtropical climates.

In some places in India, the wet-bulb thermometer (one of two thermometers in a psychrometer, the sphere of which is encased in a moist material so that water constantly evaporates and cools the sphere) exceeds +32°C; the UN predicts that India will be one of the first countries to exceed a wet-bulb temperature of +35°C. El Niño weather patterns are driving the region's mercury column to unprecedented levels.

Parts of Pakistan, the Middle East and Mexico could experience extreme heat and high humidity.

But even places with temperate climates will increasingly experience incredibly hot days. The UK recorded a record temperature of +2022°C and Portugal +40,3°C in July 47, but relatively low humidity kept the wet-bulb temperature at +25°C in both countries. Spain and Portugal recorded their hottest April ever in 2023, when a mass of hot air pushed temperatures in some areas to +40°C in late June. The heatwave came amid a widespread drought that hit the Iberian region for the second year in a row.

El Nino

In hot weather places, every aspect of life becomes more difficult and inequalities widen, especially in urban areas.

But the effects are also being felt in cooler places, mostly due to higher food and energy prices.

For example, the hot summer of 2022 in India has led to a drop in wheat production and forced the world's second largest wheat producer into an export ban, raising fears of global food shortages and inflation given the war in Ukraine, despite India not being a major exporter. (India did have a record wheat harvest, after all).

A similar weather situation in 2023 could again affect wheat, oilseed rape and chickpeas. According to calculations by Bloomberg Economics, previous El Niños had a significant impact on global inflation, increasing non-energy commodity prices by 3,9 percentage points and oil prices by 3,5 percentage points.

The heatwave is also exacerbating the drought, putting additional stress on crops and significantly impacting global harvest and yield forecasts.

A new branch of science, extreme event research, is making a connection between global warming and severe weather events, and doing so with a certain degree of accuracy.

Heat waves are in direct Zusarelated to greenhouse gas pollution caused by mankind.

Heat waves as well as drought and wind favor wildfires, so scientists believe that climate change is causing wildfires in the western part of the world USA, amplified in Australia and elsewhere. (The “fire season” in the USA is now 2 months longer than it was in the 1970s and 1980s.)

Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes or typhoons, are becoming more intense as a result of global warming. Warmer water and wetter air, two consequences of global warming, favor storms like the massive cyclone that struck Western Australia in April 2023.

India and Pakistan are 30 times more likely to experience heat waves due to climate change.

Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)

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