Last Thursday, the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) released import statistics for December, completing data collection for 2023. Total grain imports for the year increased to 162 million tons, a 12% increase from 2022 and second to the record 164,5 million tons in 2021. The value of grain imports for 2023 was $82,3 billion and was therefore slightly below the previous year's value of 82,65 billion US dollars.
Grain imports rose 38% to 18,27 million tonnes in December from the previous comparable period, helped by record corn shipments of 4,95 million tonnes. Previously, the monthly record was reached in June 2021 with 3,57 million tons.
Growth in corn imports
Corn imports were 2023 million tons in calendar year 27,13, up 31,6% from 20,62 million tons in 2022. Corn imports increased in the last four months of 2023. Chinese buyers were boosted by the low Brazilian Corn prices rose after a record harvest from the South American continent's largest corn producer boosted global supply and depressed export values. Imports reached 12,21 million tons between September and December, representing 45% of the previous year's volume.
While Ukraine remains a major supplier of corn, China has embarked on a program to diversify its corn supply to avoid being affected by the USA to become dependent. Permission has reportedly been granted to import Argentine corn - a similar move was made for Brazilian corn early last year - and deliveries from South Africa will also begin in 2023.
Anamaria Martins, senior analyst at S&P Global, said China's feed grain consumption is expected to rise by 2023 million tonnes to a record high in 24-5. This month, the USDA left China's 2023-24 corn imports unchanged at 23 million tons, down from 18,71 million tons. Although China produced a record 288,84 million tons of corn this season, the current pace of imports suggests the USDA expects a low harvest through the end of the season.
Soybean prices fall due to lower pork production
Soybeans accounted for nearly 2023% of total grain imports in December 54. A total of 9,82 million tons of soybeans were imported last December, compared to 10,55 million tons the previous year. Total soybean imports were 2023 million tonnes in 99,41, up from 91,08 million tonnes a year earlier, as Chinese buyers took advantage of cheaper supplies from Brazil. The value of imports was $59,76 billion, accounting for 72,3% of total grain imports in 2023.
Brazil now dominates the Chinese soy market. Imports from this country increased by 2023% to 29 million tons in 69,95 compared to the previous year. The imports from the USA On the other hand, fell by 13% to 24,17 million tons. Soybean shipments from Brazil last month were 4,98% higher year-on-year at 2022 million tons in December 94, while shipments from the USA were 3,85% lower at 31 million tonnes.
The decline in hog numbers will cause China's soybean imports to fall by 2024 percent in the first quarter of 20. In the first quarter of 2023, imports were 23,1 million tons, but falling demand could reduce supply this year to less than 18,5 million tons, suggesting that the USDA's current import forecast for 2023- 24 out of 102 million tons already seems extremely optimistic. Due to the falling demand for pig products late last year, pig farmers began slaughtering their animals in a hurry as the prices of their products had plummeted.
China's largest pig producer, Muyuan Foods Co, is said to have sold 6,6 million animals in December, up 25 percent from the previous month and 10 percent more than in December 2022. Wen's Foodstuff Group Co, part of the same group, sold 2,97 last month .15 million pigs, 58 percent more than the previous month and 8 percent more than last year. However, Chinese soybean processors' profits have fallen sharply due to a decline in the number of fattening pigs. Dalian soybean meal futures fell 2023% this month, reaching their lowest level since August XNUMX.
wheat and barley
Chinese wheat imports in December totaled 610.000 tons, down 7,6% from the previous month. Total imports for the year rose 21,5% to 12,1 million tonnes, well above China's tariff quota of 9,636 million tonnes. In the 11 months to the end of November, Australia exported 6,383 million tonnes to China, accounting for 52,8% of China's total imports in 2023; December export figures have yet to be published.
Barley imports from China have exceeded 1 million tonnes in the last four months. Buoyant demand fell with the lifting of a ban on Australian barley shipments in August last yearusammm. In December, shipments totaled 1,66 million tons, up 36,1% from November's 1,22 million tons. Total barley imports for 2023 were 11,32 million tonnes, up from 5,76 million tonnes last year. Since Australia's barley exports to China resumed in August, 1,81 million tonnes had been delivered to China through the end of November. August was relatively quiet with only 55.700 tonnes, but after that the ordering campaign picked up quite quickly, with 371.000 tonnes in September, 664.000 tonnes in October and 721.000 tonnes in November.
Sorghum imports have declined
In contrast, China's sorghum imports fell sharply in 2023, especially towards the end of the year. December imports were 350.000 tons, 35,2% lower than November, and total imports for 2023, at 5,21 million tons, were 48,6% lower than the 10,14 million tons shipped in 2022. By the end of November, Australia had shipped 2,06 million tonnes, or 39,5% of the total, with 1,91 million tonnes of this exported between March and September.
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)