In the February supply balance, the USDA experts again increased the forecast for global barley production and consumption. Closing inventory valuations have also been increased, but they will still be smaller than last year.
The global demand for Barley remains in the face of declining Wheat– and corn prices low, but negotiations by Australia and Canada to eliminate tariffs and restart shipments supported prices for Australian barley, whose substantial yields were putting pressure on the market. In a month, Australian feed barley prices increased by $10/tonne FOB.
In a new report, USDA experts have increased the forecast for world barley production in January 2022/23 by 1 million tonnes to 150,48 million tonnes (145,93 million tonnes in 2021/22), including Australia by 0,3 to 13,7 .0,5 million tons and Russia by 21,5 to XNUMX million tons.
The forecast for barley exports for 2022/23 was increased by 0,2 to 7,7 million tons for Australia, by 0,1 to 0,7 million tons for Kazakhstan but by 0,2 to 2,8 million tons for Canada lowered as China can ramp up supplies from Australia.
The lack of active demand for Ukrainian barley by the main buyer - China - is negatively affecting purchase prices, which in a week have fallen by $3-5/ton to $175-193/ton CRT in ports of Ukraine. The premium for barley certified for shipments to China is $3/ton.
Activation of export purchases is possible only in case of solving problems with ship entrances through a grain corridor to the Black Sea ports of Ukraine. To do this, Russian inspectors must be forced to speed up inspections or conduct inspections without a Russian delegation, as was the case in November when representatives of Ukraine, Turkey and the UN inspected 75 ships in three days.
Source: Zerno online (Russian)