This year the grain harvest in Russia amounted to 130,5 million tons, inclusive Wheat — about 85 million tons and maybe even more. This was stated by Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Agricultural Markets Institute (IKAR), during a press event organized by Syngenta. Including the southern federal district, 28 million tons can come, which will be a new record for the macro-region. A significant increase in harvest is also expected in the North Caucasus, in the Volga and in the Urals, which were severely affected by the drought last year.
According to Rylko, if Russia manages to harvest such a large wheat crop, the country's share in world agricultural exports will be 20%. But there are countries where Russian wheat plays an even more important role, the expert emphasized. Overall, grain output in the 2022/23 season is expected to be 49 million tons.
Recently, a French analyst said that the only country that looks safe and looks good there among the main countries - producers and exporters of wheat - is Russia. We totally agree with this statement. There are very serious problems everywhere: in the USA, in Ukraine, in the EU, where France in particular is not in very good shape; crop losses are expected in Argentina, in Canada and India. Perhaps only Australia will have a good harvest, but not a record-breaking one.
Dmitry Rylko
Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Economy
According to Rylko, world wheat prices rose sharply from late February to early March, but Russian grain is being sold at a heavy discount, which has reached $40 ton. Now IKARUS estimates the difference between $20-25 and Romanian wheat price levels. July futures for Russian wheat are now reaching $400t while in September it was around $270t.
On May 16, global wheat export prices surged amid the Indian wheat export ban. The Average Price of American Wheat SRW 2 at Baseline CPT Gulf of Mexico Ports (USA) rose to $19,33 ton to $470,31 ton, wheat HRW at the baseline CPT — Portland to $24,19 to $527,69 ton. the average price of wheat FCW A2 at the base line FOB port of Rouen (France) grew from $14,5 to $457,32 ton. May 17 wheat futures in Chicago rose even after India said that triggers shipments to foreign markets wheat awaiting customs clearance. According to the results of June trading, quotes of soft winter wheat CBOT in Chicago rose by $469,39 per ton, futures of solid winter wheat KCBT in Kansas city -up to $502,55 per ton, July futures of solid spring wheat MGEХ — up to $512,01 per ton Ton.
Dmitry Rylko
Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Economy
The sowing campaign in Russia is currently running at the usual pace, said Rilko. Cool weather and heavy rainfall have delayed work on some grains, but now they have come down to standard levels. According to the expert, the acreage under winter wheat is slightly lower due to the Volga and the central part of the country, but this year, unlike the past, there are almost no replantings. "We believe that spring wheat will be reduced: Siberians and Urals continue to move towards oilseeds," added Rylko.