Global grain production is projected to reach 2022 million tons in 2.765, down 1,7% from 2021.
This is stated in the forecast of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Raised forecast for Australia and Russia indicates record global production of Wheat in 2022, while the total production of feed grain is expected to decrease by 3,3% yoy.
The forecast for global rice production has been revised down as lower-than-expected production in China more than offset the increase in the forecast for Bangladesh and several other countries. As a result, global rice production is now forecast to fall by 2021% compared to the all-time high in 2,6.
«The forecast for 2023 indicates a likely increase in the area under winter wheat in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in the USA, mainly due to rising wheat prices. However, the high cost of fertilizers can affect the norms of their application, which negatively affects yields," the organization says.
Low domestic prices may lead to a slight reduction in wheat planting in Russia, the world's largest exporter, while the severe consequences of the war in Ukraine will reduce winter wheat acreage by up to 40%, FAO expects. Record crops are forecast in India due to high market prices and price support, and relatively large harvests are forecast in Pakistan as stagnant water from the 2022 flood causes fewer obstacles than originally expected.
In the countries of the southern hemisphere, most Grains sown for the 2023 harvest. Brazil can have record-breaking corn varieties, while Argentina can shrink due to low soil moisture. The weather conditions are favorable for the prospects for the maize harvest in South Africa.
“Global grain consumption in the 2022-2023 season is expected to decrease by 0,7% yoy and 2 779 million tons, with total corn consumption decreasing, while wheat consumption increasing and rice consumption not significantly yoy changes,” say the experts.
The forecast for the global grain stocks for the end of the market year is 844 million tons, which will lead to a decline in the global stock and consumption ratio to 2022% in the 2023-29,5 season.
The FAO report forecasts that international grain trade in the 2022-2023 season will fall 1,7% from last year's record level to 474 million tons.
Source: Agroportal (Ukraine)