The production of Wheat, Corn, Barley and Rice in Turkey is expected to be higher in 2022/23 than last year. There are concerns that the dry weather conditions of recent months could persist and negatively impact wheat and barley yields next year, the USDA reports.
The forecast for wheat production for 2022/23 remains unchanged at 17,25 million tonnes (million tons), increasing by more than a million tons compared to the same period last year due to favorable growing conditions. Production fell in the previous year (2021/22) due to the drought in many wheat-growing regions. Most of the wheat produced in Turkey is winter wheat. Looking ahead for 2023/24, early signs can be seen that dry weather is returning, leading to fears that winter wheat yield could fall if no more precipitation appears in the weather forecast for the next few months. The sowing of next year's winter wheat was completed in November, and the harvest will take place in the spring.
Total rainfall across Turkey from October to December 2022 compared to the same three-month period last year decreased by 29 percent and is 38 percent lower than the long-term average, according to the Turkish State Weather Service. The Sea of Marmara region in northwestern Turkey, which accounts for about 15 to 20 percent of the country's wheat production, is experiencing unusually dry weather. Overall rainfall has fallen to its lowest level in more than 60 years.
Barley production forecast for 2022/23 remains unchanged at 7,4 million tonnes (million tonnes). Most of the barley produced in Turkey is winter barley. The barley crop in 2023/24 faces the same dry weather problems as wheat. If there is no more precipitation, this can have a negative impact on the yield. The sowing of next year's winter barley was completed in November, and the harvest will take place in the spring.
The forecast for 2022/23 corn production was revised to 6,8 million tonnes, an increase of 300.000 from the US Department of Agriculture's official estimate and by the same amount compared to the same period last year. This projected increase is due to higher-than-expected harvests and a small increase in crops in the central part of the country known as the Central Anatolia Region, which accounts for 25 to 35 percent of Turkey's corn production.
The second corn harvest of the 2022/23 season was completed in the south-east of the country at the end of December. The yield was reported to be in line with expectations and the total size of the second harvest is estimated at around 1,0 million tonnes. For more information on the corn harvest in the current marketing year, see our previous Grain and Feed update.
The overall forecast for the production of paddy rice for 2022/23 remains unchanged at 600.000 tons (milled), although slightly higher compared to the same period last year. The harvest of raw rice in 2022/23 was completed in almost all regions by the end of October last year.
The wheat import forecast for 2022/23 remains unchanged at 10 million tons. This forecast suggests that TMO and private sector purchase rates will increase in the second half of the marketing year while tariffs on imported wheat are nil.
According to the Turkish Institute for Statistics (TUIK), in the first six months of 2022/23 (June to November) wheat imports fell by 10 percent compared to the previous year to almost 4,7 million tons. Russia and Ukraine were the leading suppliers, supplying 3,3 million tons and 1,2 million tons, respectively.
The forecast for wheat exports for 2022/23 has been revised slightly to 6,7 million tons due to a slight slowdown in exports, mainly pasta and bulgur, in the first six months of the marketing year (June to November).
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)