During the first week of the new year the fell wheat prices by 3 to 6,5% due to low demand and harvest in the southern hemisphere.
According to the BAGE Grain Exchange in Buenos Aires, Argentina has completed the wheat harvest, and as of January 4, 99,5% of the area (out of a planned 5,42 million hectares) has grown to 12,3 million tons, with a yield of 2,3 tons /hectare, in line with the USDA forecast of 12,5 million tons, but well below last year's result when 22,4 million tons of wheat were harvested at a yield of 3,4 tons/hectare.
Australia may harvest a record 2022 million tonnes in 23/42 thanks to good wheat yields, according to Successful Farming, while the USDA and Australia Agency for Agriculture and Resource Management (ABARES) estimated the harvest at 36,6 million tonnes in December. Heavy rainfall has improved yields, but deteriorated the quality of wheat, so the supply of fodder wheat on the world market will increase, which will contribute to a fall in corn prices. Currently, Australian feed wheat is offered at $290/tonne FOB, standard - at $300/tonne FOB and premium white wheat at $320-325/tonne FOB.
The increase in wheat supplies from Australia and Argentina reduces the demand for grain from other producers and export sales of wheat from the USA has fallen to at least 47.000 tons over the season, while shipments have fallen to 81,5 thousand tons, reaching 10.662 since the start of the season.
On Friday, prices on the world stock exchanges fell:
- up 0,4% or $1,19/ton to $273,2/ton – Chicago Soft Winter SRW Wheat Futures in March (-6,5% per week),
- up 0,9% or $2,85/tonne to $305,7/tonne - Kansas City Hard Winter HRW Wheat Futures in March (-6,7%),
- up 0,8% or $2,66/ton to $331,4/ton — Minneapolis Solid HRS Wheat Futures in March (-4%),
- up $0,25/ton to $307/ton – Chicago Black Sea Wheat Futures in January (-0,4%),
- up 0,6% or €1,75/tonne to €300/tonne or $320/tonne – March Wheat Futures on Paris Euronext (-3%).
This week, Egypt's GASC and Turkey's TMO agency will hold tenders for the purchase of food wheat, which will increase pressure on black wheat prices amid falling global quotations.
Source: UkrAgroConsult (Ukraine)