The active soybean harvest in Brazil and the forecast for favorable rainfall in South America are improving the outlook for the soybean and corn crops and putting pressure on stock market prices.
Soybean prices in Chicago fell to a two-year low today on rain forecasts in key agricultural regions of Brazil and Argentina.
According to information from SAFRAS&Mercado were in Brazil on January 26th Soybeans was harvested on 9% of the cultivated area (4% in the previous year) and corn on 15,3% of the 3,97 million hectares of cultivated area (12% in the previous year).
March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell another 1,3% yesterday to $439/t (-3,9% week-on-week, -6,8% month-on-month) under pressure from slow US exports , -13,9% compared to the previous year).
According to the USDA, US soybean exports from January 19 to 25 were 890.000 tons, down 54% from 2023, and the full season reached 27,666 million tons, down 22% from last year.
A heatwave in Argentina this week could support soybean prices. According to the BAGE exchange, soybeans in Argentina have been sown on 98% of the planned area, from which 52,5 million tons of soybeans can be harvested. Given the dry weather, the number of soybeans in poor condition increased from 2 to 8% over the week, while the number of soybeans in good or excellent condition fell to 44%. The hot weather will continue for another 7-10 days, which will negatively impact future soybean and corn crops.
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)