Ukraine and Russia are traditionally the main producers of sunflowers and sunflower oil in the world. Since the outbreak of war, negative scenarios have been expressed about Ukraine's prospects and loss of primacy in the sunflower oil trade. Today, however, a more positive scenario is emerging.
According to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture, Ukraine's share of world trade in sunflower oil in the 2023/24 marketing year will be almost 41%, while Russia's share will be 30%.
Vegetable oil exports (forecast 2023/24):
- Ukraine – (-3% by 2022/23, there is a possibility that the number will be higher due to the existence of a temporary maritime corridor)
- Russia – (+10%, three consecutive seasons of increased exports)
Sunflower oil competed on price with soy and palm oil for most of the season.
UkrAgroConsult's current crop forecast for Ukraine is more optimistic than for Russia. In fact, it is based on the expansion of cultivated areas, which, even with average yields, will ensure an increase in yields of almost 2%, so that sunflower oil exports will not be lower than this year.
Russia again announces a reduction in the area under sunflower cultivation (-2% by the 2023/24 marketing year). And it seems that in the new season all the conditions for the realization of this scenario are in place, as farmers' interest in growing soybeans, rapeseed and flax has increased.
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)