According to the monitoring data, the Ukrainian wheat export market has continued a gradual decline in indicative futures prices over the past week.
The preservation of this trend was primarily due to the impossibility of exporting grain through seaports, information about the good winter conditions, active promotion of summer sowing in Ukraine, the expected improvement in conditions for agricultural development and the increase in wheat residues due to the low rates of export of the crop Returned to shore in 2021. In addition, most importers continued to look for alternatives to supplies from the Black Sea region, which put additional pressure on prices.
However, the larger price drop was further hampered by the high cost of grain on the world market due to concerns about grain shortages already in the coming season due to the impossibility of full export from Ukraine and uncertainty about supplies from Russia. The prices were also reduced by the forecast grain production in Ukraine, the preservation of risks for their further decrease, the expectation of the resumption of exports and the activation of demand from importers.
Under the influence of these factors, the indicative offer prices of wheat with protein 12,5% and 11,5% of the future crop with delivery in July-August have slightly decreased in relation to the indicators of the week before and have 300-320 and 295, respectively -$315/ton reached.