Global demand for barley remains quite low, especially given the increase in production forecast for the new season, so hopes of an increase in barley exports from Ukraine at the end of the season may not come true. In addition, Australia and Argentina have increased their deliveries of barley to the world market.
Brisk purchases of Ukrainian barley by China in February and March led to higher purchasing prices and increased exports. In March 2024, Ukraine exported 339.000 tons of barley, which is one of the highest monthly figures this season. In the 2023/24 marketing year, 1,963 million tons of barley were exported out of the USDA forecast 2,1 million tons, compared to 2,27 million tons shipped as of April 1 last year. Analysts expect Ukraine to be able to export another 200.000 to 300.000 tons of barley in April and May as demand from Turkey and EU countries increases due to low prices.
Prices for feed barley with delivery to the Black Sea ports have fallen to 145-150 USD/ton or 6100-6200 UAH/ton, compared to 6400-6800 UAH/ton in February, while prices for feed wheat, which is supplied by a much larger number of Purchased from dealers can reach 6700-6800 UAH/ton. Processors offer 5500-5800 UAH/t for barley with delivery to the plant, as they have sufficient stocks of raw materials.
The demand for malting barley in Ukraine is also declining, as malting houses have accumulated the required volumes of raw materials by the end of the season and have reduced prices to 6200-6500 UAH/t with delivery to the factory, although prices at the beginning of the season were 8000 reached -8500 UAH/t.
According to UZA estimates, due to the low profitability of growing fodder and brewing barley, the total production of barley in Ukraine in 2024 compared to the previous year could increase from 5,8 to 4,6 million tons, and exports from 2,5 to 2 million Tons go back.
The recovery in EU barley production, particularly malting barley, will reduce demand for malting barley and malt from Ukraine, while the decline in global beer demand will further depress barley prices.
According to the European Commission forecast, in the 2024/25 marketing year, EU countries will increase their barley production by 13% to 53,7 million tons compared to the current season, while barley exports will increase by 8,5% to 10,3 million tons will increase.
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)