Due to the unfavorable weather conditions in ZusaIn light of El Niño, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has revised downward its forecast for Brazilian corn and wheat production in the 2023-24 marketing year.
In its Global Agricultural Information Network report released on April 1, the FAS lowered its corn crop forecast by 2 million tons from the previous forecast to 122 million tons, down from 135,5 million tons in the 2022-2023 marketing year. The agency also cut Brazil's corn export forecast by 13% to 45 million tons.
Brazil will be the world's leading corn exporter in 2022-2023, overtaking the United States for the first time with shipments of 54,3 million tons.
According to the report, wheat production will also fall significantly compared to last year, from a record 10,6 million tons to 8,2 million.
“Heavy rains have severely affected the harvest in the southern region, which accounts for more than 85 percent of the country's wheat production,” the FAS said. “As a result, the availability of high-quality wheat in Brazil has declined, leading to an increase in imports, despite processors claiming their inventories are full.
This follows a year in which Brazil exported 2,7 million tons of wheat, the second highest amount ever, and imported 4,7 million tons, the lowest amount in 31 years.
“Brazil has experienced an increase in wheat exports in the last two years, mainly due to a decrease in wheat supply from Argentina,” the FAS explained. “The neighboring country is Brazil's main grain supplier, but past harvests have suffered due to lack of rainfall, forcing Brazil to step in. However, this trend has changed in the current season.”
The report notes that the recent decline in corn prices has influenced growers' planting decisions.
“In this scenario, many producers redirect part of their crops to more profitable or safer options such as cotton or sorghum,” the FAS said. “Despite these challenges, the crop is still impressive and has the potential to become the second largest crop in history, both in terms of export volume and value.
In its first forecast for the 2024-25 crop year, the FAS expects Brazil's corn and wheat harvests to rise to 129 million tons and 9,8 million tons, respectively.
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
