United States Department of Agriculture

USDA analysts have raised their forecast for 2022/23 global wheat production

The USDA analysts published their forecast for the worldwide in November wheat production increased slightly to 2022 million tonnes in 23/782,6, compared to 781,7 million tonnes, which also exceeds for the 2021/22 season (779,4 million tonnes).

In particular, experts have the prognosis for the grain harvest in Australia to 34,5 million tonnes compared to 33 million tonnes in October (36,3 million tonnes last season); and in Brazil to 9,4 (9,2; 7,7) million tonnes, in Kazakhstan to 14 (13 ; 11,8) million tonnes and increased to 15,4 (14,6; 13,9) million tonnes in the UK. Conversely, the forecast for Argentina was lowered to 15,5 (17,5; 22,1) million tonnes and for the EU to 134,3 (134,7; 138,3) million tonnes.

The forecast for global wheat exports for the current season has been lowered to 206,5 million tons, compared to 207,7 million tons in October, but higher than in 2021/22 (205,1 million tons). Thus, analysts reduced the forecast for grain exports from Argentina to 10 (12,5; 17,6) million tons, India to 3 (4; 10,5) million tons, while the forecast for Australia to 27 (26; 26) million tons and increased to 9 (8; 8,4) million tons for Kazakhstan.

The forecast for 2022/23 global wheat reserves is 267,8 million tons, slightly higher than the preliminary forecast (267,5 million tons) but worse than the result of the previous season (276,3 million tons).

The forecast has been raised to 12 (11,5; 19,5) million tonnes for India and for the USA to 15,5 (15,6; 18,2) million tonnes and for the EU to 9,5 (9,9; 13,4) million tonnes.

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