Wheat the new harvest will be 246-287 €/Tonne cost if the current, inflated ratio of Rubel to Tenge 1:9 is retained. If the rate returns to the 1:6 level, the food grain price will fall to €225/ton. Such forecasts are shared by Kazakh traders.
The Kazakh wheat market has been completely dependent on the Russian one in recent years. Experts estimate that in the last dry season 3-3,5 million Tonnen Wheat came to Kazakhstan from Russia. Given the low harvest, prices remained at €246/ton.
However, when Russia in mid-March imposed a ban on the supply of Grains to the EAWG countries, wheat in Kazakhstan rose to €369/ton.
The resumption of deliveries from Russia, which took place on July 1, caused prices to drop to 287-308 €/ton. However, this fairly high level is due only to the ruble that has risen in price. In Russia, a tonne of wheat costs an average of €231/tonne, or €246/tonne at the current exchange rate. Taking delivery and payment of VAT into account, you get €308/tonne (or €287/tonne - excluding VAT).
If the exchange rate returns to justified values, the price of Russian wheat in terms of tenge will already be 205-215 €/ton – with delivery and VAT. The Kazakh one Grains must fall to the same level.
At the same time, one must also take into account the factor that if Russia gets a high harvest (which experts predict), this will bring down prices even lower.
Note that the prospects for market entry of 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain stuck in ports have already hit world wheat prices: September futures stock prices fell more than 6% on Friday.