Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
The beginning of 2025 was marked by rising prices on grain markets. According to analysts, wheat futures on the Paris commodity exchange started the year at €238 per ton, which is €17 higher than at the beginning of 2024. Quotes in the EU started the year in the €228-€231 range, €25 higher than at the beginning of last year.
Prices are influenced by the reduction of wheat production in Russia, as we recall the harvest was 10 million tons less than last year, which significantly affected the supply on the world market. Russia is actively exporting, but the volumes available for export have fallen, putting pressure on the markets. France, one of the leading wheat producing countries in Europe, has also seen yields fall, further limiting export opportunities. As a result, both Russia and EU countries are facing a supply shortage, which in turn raises prices.
Given current trends, experts predict that the grain market will continue to grow in 2025. If weather conditions are favorable and harvests in producing countries recover, this could lead to price stabilization. However, there are still uncertainties related to climate change and the global economic situation. Changes in demand for grain, especially on the part of importing countries, are also noteworthy. For example, Egypt, based on year-end purchases, said its wheat reserves will meet its needs until the end of June 2025. At the same time, China for the first time in history harvested grain over 700 million tons (706.5 million tons). Earlier, SovEcon significantly reduced its 2025 wheat harvest forecast by 3 million tons to 78.7 million tons.