Wheat

The IGC analysts have significantly increased their forecast for the global wheat harvest and stocks in 2022/23


In September, the IGC analysts published their forecast for the global wheat production increased significantly in 2022/23 – to 791,9 million tons versus 778 million tons according to the previous forecast, which also exceeds the result of 2021/22 (781,6 million tons).

In particular, the experts introduced an increased adjustment of the grain harvest in Australia to 32,2 (31; 36,3) million tons, Canada to 34,7 (33; 22,3) million tons, the EU to 133,3 (132; 138,3) million tons, the Russian Federation to 93,4 (87,6; 75) million tons, Ukraine to 21,5 (19,4; 33) million tons and also in India to 106,8 (105; 109,6) million tons. In turn, analysts have lowered the forecast for wheat production in Argentina to 18 (18,5; 22,1) million tons due to the ongoing severe drought.

The IGC analysts left the forecast for global wheat exports for 2022/23 unchanged – at 192,8 million tons, which is below the same period last year (196,7 million tons). At the same time, the analysts have increased this forecast for Australia to 25 million tons compared to 24,2 million tons of the previous forecast (26,5 million tons in 2021/22 MG), Canada to 23 million tons (22,8; 15,3, 5,1) and India at 4,9 million tonnes (8; 36,4), while the forecast for the EU is at 37,4 million tonnes (32,3; 12,5) and Argentina at 13 million tonnes (15,5; XNUMX) was lowered.

The analysts have also raised the forecast for 2022/23 global wheat reserves significantly – to 285,6 million tons compared to 274,9 million tons in August, which is also higher than in 2021/22 (279,2 million tons).

Analysts predict that Australia will grow by 3,7 (3,3; 4,5) million tons, Canada by 5,2 (4,7; 3,7) million tons, the EU by 12,8 (11,4 ; 16,7) million tons, the Russian Federation up to 22,5 (17,3; 11,3) million tons, Ukraine up to 7,6 (5,9; 7,2) million tons, and India up to 16,8 (15,2; 19,5) million tons stored.

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