Wheat

Agricultural crop harvest in Russia is forecast at 85 million tons


This year the grain harvest in Russia 130,5 million Tonnen amount, including Wheat — about 85 million tons and maybe even more. This was stated by Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Agricultural Markets Institute (IKAR), during a press event organized by Syngenta. Including the southern federal district, 28 million tons can come, which will be a new record for the macro-region. A significant increase in harvest is also expected in the North Caucasus, in the Volga and in the Urals, which were severely affected by the drought last year.

According to Rylko, if Russia manages to harvest such a high wheat harvest, the country's share of world agricultural exports will be 20%. But there are countries where the Russian Wheat plays an even more important role, emphasized the expert. Overall, grain output in the 2022/23 season is expected to be 49 million tons.

Recently, a French analyst said that the only country that looks safe and looks good there among the main countries - producers and exporters of wheat - is Russia. We totally agree with this statement. There are very serious problems everywhere: in the USA, in Ukraine, in the EU, where France in particular is not in very good shape; crop losses are expected in Argentina, in Canada and India. Perhaps only Australia will have a good harvest, but not a record-breaking one.

Dmitry Rylko

Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Economy

According to Rylko, global wheat prices rose sharply from late February to early March, but the Russian Grains is sold at a heavy discount, which is $40 Tonne has reached. Now IKARUS estimates the difference between $20-25 and the price levels of Romanian wheat. July futures for Russian wheat now reach $400 ton, compared to around $270 ton in September.

On May 16, global wheat export prices rose sharply amid the Indian wheat export ban. The Average Price of American Wheat SRW 2 at the baseline CPT Ports of the Gulf of Mexico (USA) rose to $ 19,33 ton to $ 470,31 ton, wheat HRW on the baseline CPT — Portland to $24,19 to $527,69 ton. the average price of wheat FCW A2 at the baseline FOB Port of Rouen (France) grew to $14,5 to $457,32 ton. May 17 Wheat futures rose in Chicago even after India said it would suspend shipments to foreign markets of wheat awaiting customs clearance. According to the results of the June trading day, quotes give way to winter wheat CBOT in Chicago rose to $469,39 per ton, futures solid winter wheat KCBT in Kansas City -up to $502,55 per ton, the July futures solid spring wheat MGEХ — up to $512,01 per ton.

Dmitry Rylko

Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Economy

The sowing campaign in Russia is currently running at the usual pace, said Rilko. Cool weather and heavy rainfall have delayed work on some grains, but now they have come down to standard levels. According to the expert, the acreage under winter wheat is slightly lower due to the Volga and the central part of the country, but this year, unlike the past, there are almost no replantings. "We believe that spring wheat will be reduced: Siberians and Urals continue to move towards oilseeds," added Rylko.

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