Between July and October 2022, 13,2 million tons Grain crop shipped from Ukraine to the foreign market, which is inferior to the exported volume in the same period of 2021 by 33% (19,6 million tons). So was the export of Corn 7,1 million tons (three times as much as in 2021), Wheat – almost 5 million tons (-60%) and Barley – 1,1 million tons (-76%).
It should be noted that since the signing of the «Black Sea Grain Initiative» until the end of October this year, 421 containers left the three ports of Odessa, on board of which there were 9,7 million tons of Ukrainian agricultural products, including 4,3 million tons of corn, 2,8 million tons of wheat and 319,0 thousand tons of barley. As of November 2022, 11,1, 42 million tons of agricultural products from Ukraine have already been delivered to the world market "Grain Corridor", of which 30% is corn, 4% wheat and almost 60% barley. In general, more than XNUMX% of Ukrainian grain exports are carried out in this way, but even with the announced continuation of the "grain agreement", the risks of its cancellation remain significant.
Therefore, in the current season, analysts considered two scenarios for the development of the grain market of Ukraine. In an optimistic scenario, that is, if the "grain corridor" continues to function in 2022/23, the export potential of grain is estimated at 40,3 million tons (-23% by 2021/22), of which wheat at 13,8 million tons (– 27%), barley to 2,4 million tons (-58%) and corn to 24,0 million tons (-11%).
In a pessimistic scenario, the supply of Ukrainian grain to the foreign market can be only 24,3 million tons (-53%), including wheat - 8,1 million tons (-57%), barley - 2,0 million tons (- 65%) and corn – 14,1 million tons (-48%).