Increasing agricultural productivity helps farmers meet the food needs of the growing world population while using relatively fewer resources. One of the most informative indicators of agricultural productivity is overall factor productivity (factor productivity), which shows the efficiency with which agricultural resources are combined to produce products.
Unlike single-factor counters such as B. Yield per hectare (yield), total productivity compares the total production of plant, animal and aquaculture products to the total resources used in agricultural production. When the total cost of agricultural products increases faster than the total number of inputs used, the OFP increases.
The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) has assessed annual indices of world, regional and national agricultural production and productivity since 1961. In 2022, ERS updated its estimates and expanded the series to include 2020 data. The updated data shows that the growth rate of world production in 2010 was almost a third lower than in 2000 and in 2011-20 to 1,93% per year from 2,72% per year in 2001 -10 has dropped. Over the past decade, growth rates in global agricultural production have been the lowest in any six decades covered by a range of data.
Productivity growth also began to decline, contributing to a slowdown in agricultural output growth. In the 1960s and 1970s, growth in world agricultural production was ensured by intensifying production resources, or increasing the use of labor, capital, and fertilizers per hectare. This period also includes the early years of the green revolution, when the benefits of agricultural research and development, such as the introduction of high-yielding crops, led to increases in grain productivity. Over time, the growth of the OFP also began to accelerate since the 1980s. became the largest component of the growth of agricultural production.
However, over the past decade, as output growth slowed, most of the slowdown came from slowing agricultural productivity growth. In 2010, the average growth of FFP was 1,12% per year compared to 1,99% per year in the 2000s. OFP has not been the only component of growth in agricultural production over the past decade. Compared with the last two decades, production growth associated with intensive use of inputs (labour, capital, and materials) per hectare and irrigation has declined, but the rate of land adoption or conversion to arable land has more than doubled.
Despite this, the slowdown in OFP growth was the most dominant factor affecting output growth. Overall, the slowdown in global productivity growth suggests that farmers will need to use more land and other inputs to sustain output growth.
Where has agricultural productivity growth slowed?
In the last decade, agricultural production growth has accelerated in developed countries but has slowed down in developing countries, although the growth rate of production in developing countries is still higher.
In developed countries, agricultural production growth increased on average from 0,83% in the 2000s to 1,27% in the 2010s. Average annual growth in developed countries was 2010% in the 1,05s and remained the largest component of output growth. The additional growth was caused by the stabilization of the amounts of land used in production and the increase in the utilization of production resources per hectare.
In the developing world, output growth has increased from an average of 3,61% in the 2000s to 2,19% dropped in the 2010s. This decline is largely due to the slowdown in agricultural growth, which fell by more than half – from 2,20% on average in the 2000s to 1,06% in the 2010s. The rate of irrigation and the use of productive resources in developing countries also declined in the 2010s, while the rate of land area exploitation remained roughly unchanged.
The long-term growth of agricultural productivity is not the same in different countries. For example, from 1991 to 2020, the growth rate of FFP in the major agricultural producing countries of Brazil, China, Mexico and Ukraine was more than 2% annually. During the same period, the annual growth of FFP in Canada, India and Russia was 1 to 2 percent per year and in the USA and Australia 0 to 1 percent per year.
In the last 30 years there has been a negative increase in FFP in several countries in Africa and South America. Although FP fluctuates from year to year due to weather and other factors, long-term FP growth can be negative if farmers expand into less productive agricultural land, deteriorate natural resources, or impact climate change.
Reasons for slowing productivity growth
The slowdown in agricultural productivity growth may be due to several factors.
First, recent studies have shown that climate change and associated weather shocks, such as drought, slowed growth or reduced crop yields. As weather shocks become more extreme or more frequent over time, the negative impact on agricultural productivity is likely to become even more significant.
Second, the emergence of new pests and diseases, such as disease-resistant weeds, has in some cases reduced yields or required additional costs or management methods to control.
Third, the pace of development of new productivity-enhancing technologies may slow.
A previous ERS study showed that government spending on agricultural R&D is falling in high-income countries, which could reflect a long-term decline in FP growth. At the same time, farmers in different regions of the world can slowly adopt advanced technologies. For example, manufacturers in developing countries often do not have access to reliable systems for the dissemination of agricultural knowledge, agricultural financing and insurance, or reliable information technology infrastructure that facilitates the introduction of new technologies. Finally, studies by ERS have shown that barriers to international trade can limit the transfer of productivity-enhancing technologies between countries and make importing agricultural resources more expensive.
Source: AgroBusiness (Russian)