Heat

Hot weather worldwide affects harvest conditions and yield forecasts

The world is facing a new temperature record on July 3, 2023, the hottest day in history, indicating that the consequence of climate change is a rise in global temperatures, reports UkrAgroConsult, citing Bloomberg.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and more severe. The key factor is humidity. In 2022, when India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka were hit by heatwaves, peak temperatures of over +49°C were recorded in New Delhi.

In 2023, parts of India were again hit by hot pre-monsoon temperatures – bad news for crops, crop forecasts and yields.

Elsewhere, Texas and northern Mexico were hit by hot weather. Unusually hot and dry conditions are forecast for the summer in Europe.

Traditionally, high temperatures and humidity are highest in South Asia and subtropical climates.

In some places in India, the wet bulb thermometer (one of the two thermometers in a psychrometer whose bulb is encased in a moist material so that water constantly evaporates and cools the bulb) exceeds +32°C; the UN predicts that India will be one of the first countries to exceed a wet bulb temperature of +35°C. El Niño weather patterns drive the mercury to unprecedented levels in the region.

Parts of Pakistan, the Middle East and Mexico could experience extreme heat and high humidity.

But even places with temperate climates will experience incredibly hot days more frequently. The UK recorded a record temperature of +40.3°C in July 2022 and Portugal +47°C, but relatively low humidity kept the wet bulb temperature at +25°C in both countries. Spain and Portugal recorded their hottest April ever in 2023, when a mass of hot air pushed temperatures to +40°C in some areas in late June. The heatwave came amid a widespread drought that hit the Iberian region for the second year in a row.

El Nino

In places with hot weather, every aspect of life becomes more difficult and inequalities increase, especially in urban areas.

But the effects are also felt in cooler places, mostly due to higher food and energy prices.

The hot summer of 2022 in India, for example, has led to a drop in wheat production and forced the world’s second-largest wheat producer to ban exports, fueling fears of global food shortages and inflation in light of the war in Ukraine, even though India is not a major exporter. (After all, India has had a record wheat harvest).

A similar weather situation in 2023 could again affect wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas. According to Bloomberg Economics calculations, previous El Niños have had a significant impact on global inflation, raising non-energy commodity prices by 3.9 percentage points and oil prices by 3.5 percentage points.

The heatwave also exacerbates drought, putting additional stress on crops and significantly affecting global crop and yield forecasts.

A new branch of science, extreme event research, is establishing a link between global warming and severe weather events, with some degree of accuracy.

Heatwaves are directly linked to man-made greenhouse gas pollution.

Heat waves, as well as drought and wind, favor wildfires, so scientists believe climate change is intensifying wildfires in the western U.S., Australia and elsewhere. (The “fire season” in the U.S. is now 2 months longer than it was in the 1970s and 1980s).

Global warming is making tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes or typhoons, more intense. Warmer water and more humid air, two consequences of global warming, favor storms like the powerful cyclone that hit Western Australia in April 2023.

In India and Pakistan, the likelihood of heatwaves is 30 times higher due to climate change.

Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)

13
BACK TO ANALYTICS
×