The Rusagrotrans analysis center has lowered its forecast for the grain harvest from 140.1 million tons to 130.9 million tons in the optimistic scenario. The wheat harvest potential was lowered from 89.9 million tons to 84.2 million tons, compared to 92.8 million tons last year. At the same time, the lower limit of the wheat forecast takes into account the current aggravation of the drought in the south and the occurrence of “dry winds” and their possible spread to the north of the Central Federal District and the east of the Volga region, where moisture reserves are not yet critical, as well as the increasing delay in sowing in Siberia due to cold weather and excessive precipitation at 77.5 million tons or less, according to the presentation made by the head of the Center Igor Pavensky at the All-Russian Grain Forum. According to the optimistic forecast of Rusagrotrans analysts, barley production could reach 18.7 million tons this year (21.1 million tons in 2023), corn 14.6 million tons (17.6 million tons) and other cereals 13.4 million tons (14.3 million tons).
The main decline in winter wheat will affect the south, both because of the drought in April (especially in the Krasnodar and Stavropol regions) and because of the return of frosts in May (Rostov and Volgograd regions). In the center, frosts caused major damage in the Voronezh and Tambov regions, while in the Volga region the Saratov region was hardest hit. In the Southern, Central and Volga federal districts, the gross wheat harvest is expected to be below the five-year average, according to the presentation. The only macro region where the gross harvest could be on par or above the average is the Siberian Federal District if it manages to significantly reduce the backlog of sowing in sub-optimal conditions, the analysts said.
On May 8, Rusagrotrans analysts lowered their forecast for the wheat harvest from 92 million tons to 89.9 million tons. They then warned that the harvest forecast for the south, as well as for Russia as a whole, could be lowered by 3 to 4 million tons to 87 to 88 million tons if the situation with the rainfall deficit continues until the end of May, and that the damage from the second frost wave in May could reduce the estimate by a further 1 to 2 million tons.
Earlier this week, the Institute of Agricultural Market Conditions (ICAR) revised its forecast for the Russian grain harvest for the fourth time this month, lowering it from 132 million tons to 129.5 million tons, including wheat – from 83.5 million tons to 81.5 million tons. The reasons for the adjustments were significant losses due to frost in the central regions and the Volgograd region, as well as insufficient rainfall in most European areas of the country, especially in the most productive south. The Russian Grain Union assumes that this year’s grain harvest could be around 129 million tons.
The total wheat harvest in the most important producing countries in the 2024/25 season will be 2.1 million tons higher than in the current season and will amount to 621 million tons, according to the analysis center Rusagrotrans. In addition to Russia, a lower harvest is also expected in France and Germany due to heavy rainfall, as well as in Ukraine due to lower sowing and lower winter wheat yields as a result of drought and frost in May. If the lower forecast for Russia (77.5 million tons) and an even sharper decline in Ukraine (from 19.7 million tons to 19 million tons) are taken into account when calculating global production, it is 5.5 million tons lower than in the 2023/24 harvest year, according to Rusagrotrans analysts.
According to this scenario, wheat deliveries to the world market from the most important supplier countries could fall by 16.5 million tons in the new season, while in the optimistic scenario they would only fall by 10.3 million tons to 173.7 million tons, according to Pawensky’s presentation. Including exports from Russia, exports could amount to 43 million tons in 2024/25, compared to an expected 54.4 million tons in the current season. Ukraine could reduce its wheat exports from 18.5 million tons to 13.5 million tons and the EU from 31 million tons to 30 million tons. Previously, analysts at Rusagrotrans had estimated Russia’s wheat export potential at 49 million tons in the 2024/25 season. ICAR recently lowered its forecast for grain exports in the new season from 57 million tons to 55.5 million tons, including wheat – from 45 million tons to 44 million tons.
At the same time, Russian grain exports in the current season will be record-breaking and reach 70.8 million tons, including pulses – as much as 74.8 million tons. The Rusagrotrans analytical center forecasts the supply of wheat to the world market at 54.4 million tons (the previous record was 49.3 million tons last season), barley – 8.6 million tons (the previous record in the 2020/21 season – 6.5 million tons), corn – 6.9 million tons (the previous record in the 2022/23 season – 6 million tons). From the beginning of the season until May, Russia exported around 66.3 million tons of grain – 10 million tons more than in the previous year. Including wheat, deliveries amounted to 50.5 million tons, barley – 8.3 million tons, corn – 6.6 million tons, according to the presentation.
According to the forecast of the Agroexport Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, wheat exports this season will exceed 53 million tons (including the EAEU countries), barley – 8.6-8.7 million tons, and corn – about 7 million tons. These data were given by Evgeny Zaitsev, the deputy director of Agroexport, during the All-Russian Grain Forum. He pointed out that Russian wheat has gained a foothold in the Algerian market this season, partially displacing European suppliers. According to him, deliveries to other destinations – Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco – have also actively increased, and deliveries to Asian countries – Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia – have increased significantly.
ICAR Director General Dmitry Rylko told Agroinvestor that wheat exports could reach 53 million tons by the end of this season, while total grain exports could reach 72 million tons. At the end of May, wheat stocks (excluding flour) stood at 48.5 million tons, barley at 7.7 million tons and total grain at 67 million tons, he said.
Source: Agroinvestor (Russia)