This spring brought an unexpected and very unpleasant surprise for farmers. After a warm, summery April, winter has essentially returned in a number of regions. According to experts, the May frosts will seriously affect the future harvest, and analysts are actively reducing their forecasts. A state of emergency was declared in ten regions due to the frost.
The full extent of the damage will only be determined at a later date, but as a survey of specialists and experts in the agro-industrial complex conducted by Interfax shows, significant losses will be difficult to avoid. They could amount to 12-13% of last year’s harvest, even if the dead plants are reseeded. The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation estimates their area at almost 900 thousand hectares.
Unfriendly May
Estimates of losses vary in the central and Volga regions, which were most affected by the returning frosts.
Irina Sinitsyna, EkoNiva’s communications director, explained that subzero temperatures have affected the condition of the agribusiness’s crops in the Voronezh region and the Volga region. “From the crops were wheat, sugar beet, sunflowers and corn affected. However, in general we are talking about units of percent of the total sown area intended for the 2024 harvest,” she said.
“The frosts in May led to a partial death of winter wheat crops, the area of which is now being determined. However, it is planned to sow them again, a reduction in cultivated areas is not expected,” said the press service of Cherkizovo Group.
“The greatest number of deaths and frost damage to grain crops was recorded in the regions of the Central Federal District. At the same time, the frosts in the south had a negative impact on the future harvest. So, in the farms of the “agrocomplex” in the Rostov region there are about 2,5 thousand hectares of grain ears – wheat and barley – such as peas dead and damaged by the May frosts. In the Krasnodar Territory, potatoes and corn were slightly frozen, but the damage is not critical,” said Savva Shevel, director of crop production at Agrocomplex, according to NI Tkachev.
“In our farms in the south, the spring rainfall deficit had a more negative impact on the future grain harvest than the frosts. In many farms there was no heavy rainfall from mid-February to today. Against the background of high temperatures in April and the lack of precipitation, winter crops have not developed properly, mainly due to moisture reserves in the soil from autumn and winter,” he added.
Alexei Skorobogatov, General Director of LLC Agrocomplex Labinsky (which manages the assets of the Pokrovsky concern in accordance with the decision of the Federal Agency for Asset Management), also notes that the drought has had a much more negative impact on the Krasnodar Territory than the frosts – only the latter have affected a small part of the areas bordering the Rostov region.
“At the moment there is no productive moisture in the soil layer, and this affects the condition of all crops – grains, sunflowers, beets,” said Skorobogatov. At the same time, all sowing and care work was carried out on time. Compliance with all technological phases gives hope for a harvest at the upper forecast limit.
“In general, we expect a decline in earnings of 10-30 percent compared to planning. According to the most positive forecasts, the grain harvest in the Krasnodar Territory will be 50 centners per hectare, oil sunflowers – 21-27 centimeters per hectare, large sunflowers (confectionery) – 18-23 centimeters per hectare, grain corn – 54-70 centimeters per hectare hectares and for peas at 20-25 centimeters per hectare. This will have a negative impact on the profitability of crop production, which has been declining for the third year in a row,” he added.
Due to the unfavorable weather conditions, Steppe Agro Holding has already reseeded 1.000 hectares of arable land.
“The spring drought and low temperatures in May had a negative impact on the condition of the crops. The frost mainly affected crops in the Rostov region. The agroholding’s operations have already reseeded around 1 hectares. In addition, the farms are preparing to reseed another 1,000 hectares,” said Steppe General Director Andrei Neduzhko.
He emphasized that at this point it is still too early to make a final forecast about the amount of dead plants and thus the gross yield.
“At this point it is impossible to make a definitive forecast about the harvest volume. However, for now we can expect a 10% drop in yields due to the lack of moisture in the soil and the low temperatures in May,” explained the farm manager.
Growers are also concerned about how weather conditions will evolve.
“It is too early to sum up the results, especially for grain crops. It depends on how the weather conditions will develop later, because everything will become clear closer to the harvest. Most likely, the affected areas will have to be partially re-sown. However, this is not possible everywhere and not for all crops in mid-May. There is also a possibility that the measure (reseeding – IF) will increase production costs for farmers, this factor will be offset by the provision of soft loans for re-sowing, which will be announced today by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture,” says Pavel Konev, Director of IT and Innovations of the holding exporter “Delivery by Sea”.
He emphasized that despite the adjustments, the 2024 harvest will be sufficient for domestic needs, but exports will return to the level of previous seasons.
The Bashkir Ministry of Agriculture said that crops were damaged on 10.000 hectares. “Of these, dead plants were found in an area of more than 6.000 hectares; these areas must be reseeded,” said the ministry.
In Tatarstan, about 5 hectares have died, according to Irek Sadykov, head of the agricultural sector development department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic. These are mainly early cultures rapeseeds and sugar beets. Their re-sowing is almost complete.
Adel Khairullin, head of the Krasny Vostok agricultural farm (Tatarstan), said that so far the death of crops has been detected on 1,8 thousand hectares out of 54 thousand hectares. “However, frosts have still caused damage, which will not be fully felt until early June. For example, there are many fields that missed the tillering phase and went into irrigation because of this stress,” he said.
The Samara Region intends to re-seed 8.000 hectares of dead crops with spring cereals and technical crops, the regional Ministry of Agriculture said. Winter cereals were sown on 2024 thousand hectares for the 523,5 harvest. The ministry emphasized that there had been no mass die-off of crops due to unfavorable weather conditions.
In the Saratov region, frosts caused partial damage to crops on 62 thousand hectares, according to the regional Ministry of Agriculture. In addition, only 8,9 thousand hectares (14%) of the crops were insured. Winter wheat was damaged on 43,7 thousand hectares of 1,1 million hectares of cultivated area, and plants died on 35,2 thousand hectares. “These are mainly varieties of southern selection. The winter crops of the Saratov selection were least affected,” said the ministry. The sowing of spring crops (wheat, barley, lentils, peas, corn, sunflowers, flax) was affected on 18,2 thousand hectares and died on 6 thousand hectares.
According to Deputy Governor Igor Kremnev, 40.000 hectares will be reseeded in 137 farms in the Lipetsk region. He assured that there are enough seeds available and that the structure of the cultivated areas will not change.
In the Belgorod region, according to preliminary data from the regional Ministry of Agriculture and the Rosselkhozcenter branch, crops have died on 71,1 thousand hectares, including winter crops – on 27,6 thousand hectares, spring cereals – on 5 thousand hectares, corn – on 22,2 thousand hectares hectares, sugar beets – on 4,4 thousand hectares, sunflowers – on 3,1 thousand hectares, soybeans – on 4,2 thousand hectares. Some crops are re-sown in a timely manner; there are enough seeds in the region.
In the Kursk region, the death of ovaries in perennial plants was detected in an area of about 1 thousand hectares, the regional government reports. A total of 10 thousand hectares of the total cultivated area of 1,6 million hectares were lost due to frosts down to minus 7 degrees Celsius. In addition, about 9 thousand hectares are under observation. According to the regional government, the favorable weather conditions are contributing to the recovery of harvests.
There is no critical situation in the Orel region, but due to crop losses the region was forced to declare a state of emergency. According to Irina Gurinovich, deputy head of the department for the development of technologies in plant and animal breeding of the regional Ministry of Agriculture, 1,8 thousand hectares of sugar beets need to be re-sown in the region. In addition, about 500 hectares of winter wheat, flax in an area of about 300 hectares and spring rapeseed in almost 500 hectares were damaged. The winter rapeseed was also “hit” by the frosts.
However, the cultures in the Voronezh region were most affected. According to the regional government’s press service, almost 266.000 hectares of crops were lost or significantly damaged. The need to reseed the affected fields and the crops to replace the dead plants are determined by the farms themselves. According to preliminary information, available seed stocks are sufficient.
According to the Deputy Governor and Minister of Agriculture and Food of the Rostov Region Konstantin Rachalovsky, the observed frosts have caused partial damage and partial death of plants in almost all districts of the region. “The exact data about the areas affected by the frosts are now being clarified. According to preliminary estimates, more than 140 thousand hectares are affected, with the total cultivated area in the region amounting to 4,9 million hectares,” Rachalovsky said. Since May 15, the emergency regulations have been in effect in the municipal districts of the Rostov region, which allows farmers to take out insurance and reimburse losses.
The emergency regulations have been in force since May 32 in 14 districts of the Volgograd region. According to the press service of the regional administration, the decision was made based on the results of the inspection of crops by specialists of the interministerial group. “The frosts have negatively affected winter and spring crops in some districts. (…) Some areas were identified where crops were unable to recover from the temperature stress. Now specialists are giving companies recommendations for fertilization,” said the authorities. The total cultivated area for the 2024 harvest in the Volgograd region is 3,3 million hectares.
The cold front in May caused “cold stress” in grain and row crops in the Krasnodar Territory, reports the Kuban branch of Rosselkhozcenter. This led to frostbite, yellowing and necrosis of the plants’ leaf mass. This can be observed primarily in the northern zone of the region. At the same time, the situation of spring crops in the Kuban looks more optimistic compared to other regions.
“The sufficiently warm weather in spring contributed to the sowing of spring crops this year being 1,5 to 2 times faster than in 2023. The spring crops are currently fully sown. Your condition is assessed as satisfactory and good. The frosts that occurred in some areas of the region in the first decade of May did not have a particular impact on spring crops. Slightly damaged 0,9 thousand hectares of sugar beet, corn – 4,9 thousand hectares, soybean – 0,2 thousand hectares, sunflowers – 1 thousand hectares,” – explained in the Ministry of Agriculture of the region. Spring crops are sown on 1,8 million hectares in Kuban.
The condition of some winter crops remains a concern for regional authorities. “Around 2024 million hectares of winter cereal ears have been sown for the 1,8 harvest. Although the weather conditions of the current year have affected the pace of development and the condition of crops, it is not critical. Currently, the condition of winter crops on almost 75% of the area is rated as good, the rest of the area is in satisfactory condition. Rapeseed crops are of concern, as the conditions for their wintering were not the most favorable – dry September in some areas did not allow obtaining friendly seedlings, and excessive overwatering in the low places of the relief in the winter period,” – said the ministry .
“Considering the current situation, it can be assumed that the harvest of winter crops for the 2024 crop will begin earlier than usual,” the Kuban Agriculture Ministry added.
Seeds are available, but there are problems with obtaining credit
Seeds for reseeding dead crops and other resources are sufficiently available in all regions where this work is required, according to almost everyone the agency spoke to.
“We plan to reseed some of the crops with other crops, for this the group has a stock of seeds and all the necessary resources,” said Sinitsyna of the EkoNiva Group of Companies.
“The company has the necessary resources, with the exception of crop protection products. Once the need is identified, additional purchases will be made,” said Cherkizovo Group.
In the Saratov region, according to Rosselkhozcenter, there are 45.000 tons of seeds for spring crops, which is ten times more than the need for reseeding. Reseeding has already been carried out on more than 20% of the areas. More than 62% of the dead areas are covered with wheat, barley, buckwheat, millet, Corn, chickpeas and lentils, 30% with soy, flax, sunflowers and sugar beets, 8% remain fallow.
At the same time, the funds for this work are not always available.
Lipetsk Oblast assured that the region has limits on preferential lending to agricultural enterprises “if necessary.”
The Ministry of Agriculture of the Saratov Region is working on the issue of providing low-interest loans to affected farms for the re-sowing of lost crops. “The issue of the rapid receipt of insurance payments, low-interest loans for the affected companies and the re-sowing of crops is being particularly examined,” emphasized the ministry.
At the same time, according to Gurinovich (Orel region), “subsidized loans at a low interest rate, as always, are not enough.” Now they are needed primarily for the renewal of agricultural machinery, which is mainly imported, but there are problems with their preservation. Commercial loans, on the other hand, come at an interest rate of 18 to 25 percent per year, she said.
“It is impossible to get loans at current interest rates,” agrees Khairullin from Krasny Vostok.
Additional costs
The May frosts have required farmers to incur additional costs for ongoing sowing, which have already been high this year.
So in “Krasnoye Vostok” they are estimated at a total of 15-20 million rubles. At the same time, they also expect the prices for their products to stabilize. “As far as prices are concerned, the industry has been in a critical state since 2022,” said Khairullin.
Sadykov from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Production in Tatarstan estimates that the cost of reseeding one hectare is over 800 rubles. “This includes wages, fuel and lubricants, as well as additional costs for seeds depending on the crop and hybrid variety,” he said. – This definitely overlaps with the production costs of farms.”
In the current situation, said Gurinovich from the Orel region, farmers have practically no working capital left to develop production. This is despite the fact that grain prices have risen due to the frost and lower harvest forecasts. “Those who managed to hold on to their grain are now selling it cheaper than they were a month or two ago. But these are still not the prices of three years ago,” she said. – And you have to remember that the key interest rate was lower back then and loans were more accessible”. According to their forecast, the winter wheat deficit in the region could be 15-20% this year.
In the Saratov region, the damage from crop failures was provisionally estimated at almost 452 million rubles.
Minus 12-13%, but it could be even more
Under these conditions, grain market experts have recently been actively lowering their forecasts for this year’s grain harvest.
“That is entirely understandable. It is quite obvious that we will be 12-13% below the last harvest, but it may be more,” said Vladimir Petrichenko, General Director of ProZerno.
Regarding plans to reseed dead crops, he noted that they will not fully compensate for the losses. “In a number of regions it is not technically sensible to sow and late sowing in spring drought. For example, in the European part of the country it is too late to sow barley under these conditions,” he said. – According to the forecast of the Hydrometeorological Center, there will be no rainfall in the next ten years in the frost-affected regions where sowing could still be expected.
“The consequences of the bad weather are still being assessed, we have not yet reached the end of these problems,” said the expert.
Dmitry Rylko, general director of the Institute of Agricultural Market Conjuncture, said reseeding could lead to a serious disruption of crop rotation.
“No one will sow wheat again because the most affected crop in the European part of the country has irretrievably died. Normally it is sown here in April, the deadline has passed,” he said. – Soybeans, sunflowers, corn and other late crops are partially grown in these fields.
According to him, it is not just additional costs, but also such an important aspect as violation of crop rotation. “Then it will be very difficult to get out of this situation,” he believes.
In May, the Institute for Agricultural Market Conditions reduced by three times the forecasts for this year’s grain harvest and export potential in the new agricultural year (July 2024-June 2025).
In 2023, the Russian Federation will harvest 144,9 million tons of grain (including 92,8 million tons of wheat), up from 157,6 million tons (104,2 million tons) in 2022). According to the forecast of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, this year’s grain harvest could reach 132 million tons. However, the ministry does not rule out an adjustment.
Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)