In 2022/23 it was not easy for the rapeseed market. You can already talk about the preliminary results of the season. If the sowing of winter oilseed rape was carried out in peacetime - in the fall of 2021, the harvest and its implementation took place in wartime, overcoming a large number of atypical problems (shelling, port halts, violation of logistics chains, lack of electricity supply, ban on imports of agricultural crops from Ukraine in a number of Eastern European countries, etc.).
The record sown area - more than 1,4 million hectares - was reduced not only by traditional losses after successful wintering, but also by the occupation of part of the territory of Ukraine by Russia, the high yield compensated for the losses, and the harvest was at a maximum updated from 3,6 million tons.
The share of rapeseed exports in the harvest has exceeded 94%.
The export season is unusually long and rapeseed exports from October to May this year remain higher than last year.
There was a partial reorientation of exports to ground logistics.
The position of EU countries has strengthened in the geographical structure of exports - up to 90% of all exports against 67% after 2021/22.
The import ban of Rape from Ukraine to Eastern European countries did not have a significant negative impact on rapeseed export in 2022/23, and almost 99% of the export potential was realized between July and March.
In case of an extension of the ban after June 5 this year, a serious problem poses for Ukraine, since these five countries account for more than half of all rapeseed exports in 2022/23 (52%), and the ranking of TOP importers in 2023/24 will be led by Romania and Poland.
Now the downward trend of the Ukrainian rapeseed price under the influence of the trends of European trade, which in the future will feel the additional pressure of a new crop, as well as the need to book logistics, will stimulate Ukrainian sellers in terms of concluding futures contracts, on the contrary, buyers are reluctant to close deals and expect classic price cuts.
With storage of all factors, an increase in rapeseed prices is unlikely. However, a weather factor that may eventually change negative price trends should not be ruled out. If it is confirmed that very hot weather and various weather disasters will prevail in 2023, prices may have a chance to recover.
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)