According to forecasts from IGCAnalysts say global wheat production could fall in 2022/23 for the first time since the 2018/19 season – to 778 million Tonnen, while some key wheat exporting countries are expected to experience crop losses due to unfavorable weather conditions.
First of all, a harvest reduction is forecast in the EU (-4,5% per year), Ukraine (-41%), Australia (-15%), Argentina (-16%). At the same time, while there are prospects of increasing the 2022/23 wheat harvest by 16% per year to almost 14 million tons, Canada (+ 52%), the Russian Federation (+ 17%), the USA (+ 8%).
World trade can fall to 192,8 million tons (-2% per year), which is partly due to the forecast increase in grain production in the importing countries, reducing the demand for imported Wheat will sink.
In particular, the IGC experts have forecast a fall in wheat imports by China in 2022/23 to 8,4 million tons against 9,4 million tons, which was also the case in the 2021/22 season (9,9 million tons) and 2020/21 under the value lies.