Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
Strategy Grains has released its monthly forecasts for this year’s rapeseed and sunflower harvests in the EU have been reduced again as adverse weather conditions continue to impact the EU's main oilseed crops, the consultancy said.
The company lowered its forecast for the EU rapeseed harvest in 2024 for the third year in a row. It estimated production at 17,27 million Tonnen, down from a forecast of 17,80 million tonnes a month ago and now almost 14% below the year-ago level.
Expected production has been revised downwards, particularly in Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Romania, due to both low yields and reduced area under cultivation, according to the summary of the EU oilseeds report.
The rapeseed harvest in Europe is in its final phase.
Analysts are forecasting a decline in the rapeseed harvest in the EU after several months of heavy rain, including in France, where the Ministry of Agriculture believes a drop in production of almost 8 percent is possible.
For Sunflower seeds, which are harvested in late summer and autumn, Strategy Grains has lowered its EU forecast for the second month in a row and now expects a harvest of 9,65 million tonnes, compared to 10,49 million tonnes previously.
The drastic revision of the forecast is below last year's production of 9,80 million tons.
After a rainy spring, sunflower crops in Eastern Europe experienced a hot and dry start to the summer. Strategy Grains has lowered its expectations for Romania and Bulgaria, and to a lesser extent Hungary, as the weather in July is expected to have a negative impact on yields.
Last week, the European Commission also lowered its monthly forecasts for EU rapeseed and sunflower production, now expecting harvests of 18,38 million and 10,14 million tonnes respectively.
As for the smaller EU soybean crop, Strategy Grains left its 2024 forecast unchanged at 2,99 million tonnes, up 4,6% from last year, when higher plantings are expected to offset lower yields.
Strategy Grains expects rapeseed and sunflower stocks in the EU to be tight in 2024/25, although forecast import volumes have been revised upwards, which is likely to lead to higher prices than previously expected.
The uncertainty about the impact of the upcoming EU regulation on deforestation, which will affect Soy- and palm oil imports, but could lead to short-term volatility in oilseed markets, the agency added.